Justin Upton8217s Future Value

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Justin Upton8217s Future Value

Postby sherry2018love Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:33 am

With Kevin Towers back in the helm of the Major League franchise, we can be confident of one thing hell create enough trade rumors to help keep Tim Dierkes busy for life. If loose lips really did sink ships, Towers might take out an armada within minutes. Todays rumor of the day is that the Diamondbacks is going to be prepared to pay attention to calls for young right fielder Justin Upton. In reality, almost every GM is willing to listen to requires almost every player on their roster, so Lorenzo Taliaferro Jersey this probably doesnt mean anything. But, for entertainment, lets evaluate which Upton may be worth if Arizona really did put him on the market.
Every discu sion has to start with his age. He turned 23 in August, so most organizations still have respected prospects over the age of he is, and yet, hes already accumulated +7.7 WAR with what comes down to about three big league seasons. Even with his take a step back in 2010, he was an above major league right fielder at any given time when most children his age are attempting to prove themselves in Double-A.
So, in the end can di sect Uptons strengths and weakne ses according to his big league performance up to now, we have to keep his youth in your mind. Most players who arrive at the big leagues as soon as Upton grow to be excellent players, or even superstars. His potential is apparent.
However, there's a gap between what Upton might be and what he currently is. His blend of power and athleticism means him to succeed despite deficiencies in contact, but when hes going Willie Henry Jersey to make the leap one stage further, hes going to need to figure out how to stop striking out so often. Actually, Upton may be the only player in major league history to strike out 400 times by the end of his age 22 season.
Even if you lower the bar too 300 strikeouts at this point inside a career, only Jose Canseco whiffed with anything approaching the same consistency 24.6 percent of his plate appearances led to strikeouts, still trailing the 25.9 percent mark set by Upton so far. If you drop down to 200 strikeouts, you finally find three players with a higher strikeout rate than Justin Upton through age 22 his brother B.J (26.3%), Sammy Sosa (26.3%), and Reggie Jackson (29.0%).
Those comparisons are a small mixed bag. Canseco and Sosa have obvious clouds hanging over their heads, as the elder Upton hasnt changed into the player that Tampa Bay hoped as of yet. Jackson is the guy who offers hope, as he got his contact problems under control in the mid-20s and progre sed into among the best sluggers of all time.
Trading for Upton comes with a huge potential payoff, but reaching superstar status now looks a little le s likely than it did annually or two ago. So, while a group acquiring Upton could hope for a large return, theyd also have to remember that he might wind up settling in like a good-not-great player. Lets take a look at both scenarios and his estimated value for over the next 5 years.
Good Player, Not really a Superstar
2011 Cavellis Luckett Jersey +3.5 WAR, $17.5 million value, $4.25 million salary2012 +4.0 WAR, $20.8 million value, $6.75 million salary2013 +4.5 WAR, $24.8 million value, $9.75 million salary2014 +4.5 WAR, $25.7 million value, $14.25 million salary2015 +5.0 WAR, $30.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +21.5 WAR, $118.7 million value, $49.5 million salary
That puts Upton at about $70 million in surplus value over what his contract will pay him between 2011 and 2015.
Upton Becomes Elite
2011 +4.5 WAR, $22.5 million value, $4.25 million salary2012 +5.0 WAR, $26.0 million value, $6.75 million salary2013 +5.5 WAR, $30.25 million value, $9.75 million salary2014 +6.0 WAR, $34.25 million value, $14.25 million salary2015 +6.5 WAR, $39.0 million value, $14.5 million salary
Total: +27.5 WAR, $152.0 million value, $49.5 million salary
In the very best case scenario outcome, Upton is worth over $100 million beyond what hell be paid by the time he reaches free agency. This may be the Reggie Jackson payoff, e sentially. And for this reason every team in baseball will at least be exploring whether Upton is priced to move or not.
These are not the only two outcomes, of course. He could regre s (ZIPS lists his number 1 comparison as Danny Tartabull, for example) or get injured. My expectations of continued salary inflation over the next 5 years could be wildly wrong. Teams will have to look at the broad spectrum of po sible Danny Woodhead Jersey returns if they quit the farm to get Upton. However, considering that hes already a good player and wouldnt need to improve much to be worth well greater than his contract, and the man offers the upside to be among the best values in the game, the marketplace for Upton will probably be overflowing with interested teams.
And in the end, I expect Arizona will come to the realization they should probably just hang onto their young right fielder.

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